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Wales to falter while Ireland, England & France progress in Rugby World Cup

By Sandra Villanueva
Head of Media Relations & Content

The Rugby World Cup has reached the knockout stages and the QBE Predictor is saying that England, Ireland and France will all progress but Wales will be going home this weekend. 

After five weeks of intriguing and entertaining pool matches we are left with eight teams vying to make the final four, three have lifted the trophy before while five are aiming to do so for the first time.

The first quarter-final of the weekend sees Wales, who topped their pool by winning all four matches so far, face an Argentina side who were comfortably swept aside by England on the opening weekend but have steadily improved since then and finished second in their pool. The previous three meetings between the two teams have been shared, with one draw and a win apiece. This is set to be another close match with the QBE Predictor giving the edge to the South Americans and forecasting a 19-18 win.

On Saturday evening Ireland will play New Zealand at Stade de France in Paris, which has become a home away for home for thousands upon thousands of Irish fans. In previous generations a match between Ireland and New Zealand would be a foregone conclusion, Ireland had not beaten the All Blacks until 2016, however Ireland have won five out of eight of the most recent matches between the two. Ireland are the number one team in the world and are undefeated in 17 consecutive matches but a resurgent New Zealand pose a real threat to their dominance. The QBE Predictor sees Ireland maintaining their winning streak, qualifying for their first World Cup semi-final and running out 25-19 winners over New Zealand in what is bound to be a mouth-watering display of top-level rugby.

England have the easiest quarter-final on paper as they face a Fiji side ranked 10th in the world who made it out of their pool despite losing 2 of their 4 matches. England have flattered to deceive so far during this World Cup campaign. They made a promising start against Argentina, played confidently against Chile, however they looked lacklustre against Japan and barely scraped past Samoa who were unlucky to lose. Fiji have also blown hot and cold; they dispatched Australia in one of the performances of the tournament and could have beaten Wales at the death but they come into the quarter-final off the back of a loss to Portugal. Despite the unconvincing form of both teams the QBE Predictor foresees an English resurgence and a comfortable 47-15 win.

The final quarter-final of the weekend sees hosts France take on reigning world champions South Africa in Paris. France have been imperious in the tournament to date, dispatching New Zealand on the opening night and cantering to the top of their pool. Their hopes will be significantly boosted by the return of their captain and talisman Antoine Dupont from a fractured cheekbone. On the other hand South Africa, despite losing to Ireland, have looked their typically powerful and dominant selves. Coming off the back of a Grand Slam Six Nations title earlier this year and playing in front of passionate home fans the French will be confident of success. The Predictor also sees French momentum pushing them through to the semi-finals with a 31-23 win.

There has never been a World Cup semi-final line-up made up exclusively of northern hemisphere nations and according to the QBE Predictor it is a narrow Argentinian win over Wales that will prevent this from happening again. If the QBE Predictor proves correct this weekend the semi-final line-up will be Ireland v Argentina and France v England.

Quarter-final predictions:


Team A

Team B





18 – 19



New Zealand

25 – 19




47 – 15



South Africa

31 – 23


David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said:
“The Predictor backs Ireland, England and France to win but predicts a close loss for Wales, underlining the point that we must be prepared for surprise outcomes. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for unexpected events , the players and coaches should be preparing for unlikely occurrences and how to take advantage too.”

The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model that simulates the tournament 3,750 times producing outcomes from 180,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past eight years against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, and the international experience of each team captain.


For further information contact:
• Charlie Bohan-Hurst, Jefferson Communications, 07847 015225,

• Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 7105 5284,


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Sandra Villanueva

Sandra Villanueva

Head of Media Relations & Content, QBE International