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UK exports not expected to recover before 2026

The value of goods exported from and imported into the UK will decline by 3.2% and 0.8% in real terms in 2023, research from business insurer QBE has found, with exports failing to fully recover before 2026, reflecting the slowdown in world and UK growth.

According to a new report from QBE, Global Commerce: UK Forecast for International Trade, it is expected the annual growth in goods exports will recover to 1.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. Conversely, the recovery in the annual growth in imports of goods is forecast to be more rapid, reaching 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively.

UK trade has been hit by a unique set of challenges over the past few years. Alongside issues affecting global supply chains – such as the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – the UK’s importers and exporters have also had to adapt to the impact of Brexit on their operations.

New checks on goods at borders have created paperwork and delays, and the end of free movement has contributed to haulier shortages, while new trade deals have done little to open up new markets.

Chris Wallace, Executive Director, QBE UK, said: “The coming years are likely to see governments across Europe and beyond looking to ensure access to critical goods. Some businesses will benefit from shorter supply chains, but few are likely to be able to insulate themselves from the impact of global events on trade flows.”

UK businesses should watch out for evolving trade regulations and relations

Moving forward, UK businesses engaged in international trade should keep an eye on evolving post-Brexit rules and relations, which are likely to continue to evolve in coming years. They will also need to be prepared for the potential escalation of geopolitical tensions and the continuation of recent trends around nearshoring and onshoring.

The report also recommends strategies such as carrying out market research on current and prospective trade partners and trying to diversify export markets and simplify supply chains to mitigate potential risks.

Chris Wallace, Executive Director, QBE UK, said: “The most effective way of minimising the risks involved in international trade is to ensure business activities are insured. Although nowadays shipping processes are quite safe, there is always some degree of risk. Buying insurance coverage is a way of mitigating financial losses in case something goes wrong. This can cover issues such as products damage, theft, and cargo losses.”

Research for the report was conducted by Oxford Economics and Control Risks. The full report is available here.

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For further information contact:

Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 7105 5284, Sandra.Villanueva@uk.qbe.com

Alexis Burris, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 3465 3921, Alexis.Burris@uk.qbe.com

 

About QBE

QBE helps businesses build resilience through risk management and insurance.

QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2022 was US$20 billion.

As a business insurance specialist, QBE European Operations offers a range of insurance products from the standard suite of property, casualty and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine and energy. All are tailored to the individual needs of our small, medium and large customer base.

We understand the crucial role that effective risk management plays in all organisations and work hard to understand our customers’ businesses so that we offer insurance solutions that meet their needs – from complex programmes to simpler e-trading solutions – and support them in minimising their risk exposures. Our expert risk management and rehabilitation practitioners focus on helping customers improve their risk management so that they may benefit from a reduction in claims frequency and costs.