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By Sandra Villanueva
Senior Media Relations Manager

The QBE Business Insurance supercomputer is predicting wins for all four home nations in the next cycle of games in the group stage of the Rugby World Cup in Japan.

The supercomputer, used by catastrophe planners at QBE Business Insurance, is predicting wins in the next matches up to the halfway point of the group stage and that all four will breeze into the Quarter Finals.

According to a complex mathematical formula created for the supercomputer by actuaries at QBE Business Insurance, whose day job is predicting the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, England, Ireland, Wales and Scotland will win their remaining three games in the group stage.

The pick of the games is Wales predicted to defeat Australia by the narrowest of margins 22-21. England are predicted to trounce USA 45-9, with Ireland beating Japan 37-21 and Scotland scoring their first win with a 28-22 victory over Samoa.

Other results predicted include a comfortable win for Argentina over Tonga with a predicted score of 29-19. Georgia are predicted a solid victory over Uruguay with 24-10; a much needed win after a defeat against Wales on Monday. Perhaps the most remarkable prediction, however, is South Africa’s hammering of neighbouring Namibia with a score of 72-0!

The predicted scores in each game are based on 10 years of historical data and how well each team has played in the past against opposition of similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team of playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.

Each simulated match uses probabilities and random numbers to generate an outcome. Modelling the entire tournament 3,750 times gives an idea of how far each team will go in the tournament and the chances of this happening.

However, despite early successes in the tournament, the supercomputer predicts that the Home Nations will find life much tougher in the later rounds, with Ireland having only a 1% chance of winning the tournament. England and Wales fair slightly better, with Wales second favourites to win the tournament with an 11% chance of winning their first ever World Cup and England not far behind with an 8% chance of repeating their 2003 glory.

It is no surprise that the Supercomputer has predicted New Zealand are overwhelming favourites to retain their place as world champions, with a 50% chance of making it three on the trot.


MATTHEW CRANE, Executive Director of Market Management at QBE, said:
“England, Wales and Ireland lived up to expectations and won their first games and along with Scotland, have a real chance of going far in the tournament. As we know, anything can happen and the key is preparation. This will be particularly important for Wales as the predicted narrow score margin indicates a hotly fought match. One thing is for sure it will be another superb weekend of rugby”.


2nd Cycle Predictions

Fixture

Predicted result

England vs USA

45 - 9

Argentina vs Tonga

29 - 19

Japan vs Ireland

21 - 37

South Africa vs Namibia

72 - 0

Georgia vs Uruguay

24 - 10

Australia vs Wales

21 - 22

Scotland vs Samoa

28 - 22

Home Nations chances of progressing through the tournament

England

 

Wales

Qualify for Quarter finals

90%

 

Qualify for Quarter finals

94%

Qualify for Semi finals

46%

 

Qualify for Semi finals

62%

Qualify for the Final

18%

 

Qualify for the Final

26%

Winner

8%

 

Winner

11%

         

Ireland

 

Scotland

Qualify for Quarter finals

93%

 

Qualify for Quarter finals

67%

Qualify for Semi finals

46%

 

Qualify for Semi finals

12%

Qualify for the Final

26%

 

Qualify for the Final

4%

Winner

1%

 

Winner

0%

         


For further information and interviews please contact:

Mike Houghton
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Mob: +44 (0) 7789 167009
Email: Mike.Houghton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

David Felton
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Mob:+44 (0) 7803 214682
Email: david.felton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7105 5284
Email: Sandra.villanueva@uk.qbe.com

Visit us on the web at www.QBEeurope.com
Follow us on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/qbeeo


About QBE
QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2018, was US$13.7 billion.

As a business insurance specialist, QBE European Operations offers a range of insurance products from the standard suite of property, casualty and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine and energy. All are tailored to the individual needs of our small, medium and large client base.

We understand the crucial role that effective risk management plays in all organisations and work hard to understand our clients’ businesses so that we offer insurance solutions that meet their needs – from complex programmes to simpler e-trading solutions – and support them in minimising their risk exposures. Our expert risk management and rehabilitation practitioners focus on helping clients improve their risk management so that they may benefit from a reduction in claims frequency and costs.

Sandra Villanueva

Sandra Villanueva

Senior Media Relations Manager

Tel: +44 20 7105 5284

sandra.villanueva@uk.qbe.com

Your contact

Sandra Villanueva

Sandra Villanueva

Senior Media Relations Manager

Tel: +44 20 7105 5284

sandra.villanueva@uk.qbe.com

Your contact

Sandra Villanueva

Sandra Villanueva

Senior Media Relations Manager

Tel: +44 20 7105 5284

sandra.villanueva@uk.qbe.com