Skip to main content

Supercomputer predicts an easier run for Home Nations as the group stage battles continue

By Sandra Villanueva
Senior Media Relations Manager

QBE Business Insurance rugby predictor is forecasting that all four Home Nations will enjoy comfortable wins in the next round of games

According to a complex mathematical formula created for the supercomputer by actuaries at QBE Business Insurance, whose day job is predicting the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, England, Ireland, Wales and Scotland will win their next set of fixtures in Japan.

While the supercomputer has correctly predicted the outcome of 17 of the 18 matches played, Japan’s victory over Ireland proves that the unlikely can always happen.
In the next cycle of matches Ireland look set to record the most impressive result with the supercomputer predicting a 52-12 win over Russia whilst England are predicted to engage in a tighter affair with Argentina and emerge 27-19 winners.

Hot on the heels of their dramatic game against Australia, Wales are predicted to outmatch Fiji 29-10, while Scotland are set to inflict even more misery on Russia with a 37-17 win predicted for the Scots. The hosts Japan are set to continue their remarkable run of results with a predicted 26 - 16 win for the Cherry Blossoms over Samoa

The predicted scores in each game are based on 10 years of historical data and how well each team has played in the past against opposition of similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team of playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.

The supercomputer has also attempted to predict the overall probability of each team’s chances of winning the tournament outright. Here the predictions are a bit less positive for the home nations with Ireland having an apparent 1% chance of lifting the trophy. Wales and England face slightly more favourable odds with 11% and 8% chances respectively.

MATTHEW CRANE, Executive Director of Market Management at QBE, said:
“Japan’s unlikely victory over Ireland proves that sport, like business, is unpredictable. All of the Home Nations are still in with a chance of making it to the quarter finals, what will make that even more likely is if each of the teams go in to their next round of games prepared for any eventuality.”

3rd Cycle Predictions


Predicted result

France vs USA

27 - 15

New Zealand vs Canada

59 - 14

Georgia vs Fiji

14 - 19

Ireland vs Russia

52 - 12

South Africa vs Italy

32 - 12

Australia vs Uruguay

69 - 6

England vs Argentina

27 - 19

Japan vs Samoa

26 - 16

New Zealand vs Namibia

71 - 8

France vs Tonga

26 - 18

South Africa vs Canada

69 - 9

Argentina vs USA

29 - 21

Scotland vs Russia

37 - 17

Wales vs Fiji

29 - 10

Home Nations chances of progressing through the tournament




Qualify for Quarter finals



Qualify for Quarter finals


Qualify for Semi finals



Qualify for Semi finals


Qualify for the Final



Qualify for the Final











Qualify for Quarter finals



Qualify for Quarter finals


Qualify for Semi finals



Qualify for Semi finals


Qualify for the Final



Qualify for the Final








For further information and interviews please contact:

Mike Houghton
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Mob: +44 (0) 7789 167009

David Felton
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Mob:+44 (0) 7803 214682

Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7105 5284

Visit us on the web at
Follow us on Twitter at

About QBE

QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2018, was US$13.7 billion.

As a business insurance specialist, QBE European Operations offers a range of insurance products from the standard suite of property, casualty and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine and energy. All are tailored to the individual needs of our small, medium and large client base.

We understand the crucial role that effective risk management plays in all organisations and work hard to understand our clients’ businesses so that we offer insurance solutions that meet their needs – from complex programmes to simpler e-trading solutions – and support them in minimising their risk exposures. Our expert risk management and rehabilitation practitioners focus on helping clients improve their risk management so that they may benefit from a reduction in claims frequency and costs.

Your contact

Your contact

Sandra Villanueva

Sandra Villanueva

Head of Media Relations & Content, QBE International