According to forecasts by QBE Business Insurance, England are set to lose a fourth consecutive Calcutta Cup to Scotland when the two sides face off at Murrayfield on Saturday.
Despite winning both of their opening matches, by a combined total of five points, England’s remaining three fixtures are undoubtedly the most challenging and according to the QBE Predictor their luck is due to run out in Scotland this weekend.
Scotland will be particularly fired-up, not only for the oldest rivalry in international rugby, but off the back of a controversial loss to France in Round 2, a match they will feel they deserved to win. Not since the early 1970s have the Scots won four consecutive matches against England and if, as predicted by QBE, they achieve this feat on Saturday it will rubber stamp they’re recent dominance in this fixture and make England rethink their tactics.
English hopes will be boosted by the return of Ollie Lawrence and Manu Tuilagi who both returned to the squad last week. Their powerful running in midfield should provide England with some direct go-forward ball which they have lacked in the opening two rounds. However, their new rush defence has come under scrutiny and with the maverick Finn Russell pulling the strings for Scotland they will need to have improved significantly to have any chance of success. The QBE Predictor forecasts a very close match and just gives Scotland the edge in a 23-22 victory.
In the other third round fixtures the QBE Predictor gives Ireland a 71% chance of victory as they face a Welsh side yet to win a match. Ireland looked impressive in a comfortable victory against Italy last time out and the QBE Predictor gives them an 83% of winning the tournament, it is theirs to lose from here. In the last match of the weekend France host Italy in Lille and are given a 95% of winning and keeping their Championship hopes alive.
David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said:
“This week the QBE Predictor forecasts a win for Scotland against England although by a margin of only one point, underlining the point that we must be prepared for a range of possible outcomes. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for unexpected events, the players and coaches should be preparing for unlikely occurrences and how to take advantage too.”
Round Three score predictions:
|
Score Prediction |
Outcome Probability |
|||||
|
Home |
Away |
Home win |
Away win |
Draw |
||
|
Ireland |
25 |
16 |
Wales |
71% |
26% |
3% |
|
Scotland |
23 |
22 |
England |
52% |
45% |
3% |
|
France |
45 |
15 |
Italy |
95% |
4% |
1% |
Tournament Predictions:
|
Winner |
QBE Predictor |
|
Ireland |
83% |
|
England |
6% |
|
France |
6% |
|
Scotland |
4% |
|
Wales |
1% |
|
Italy |
0% |
The QBE Predictor simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, and the international experience of each team captain.
For further information contact:
• Charlie Bohan-Hurst, Jefferson Communications, 07847 015225,
Charlie.Bohan-Hurst@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk