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QBE Supercomputer predicts Wales vs New Zealand final, but England form could see them beat the odds

By Sandra Villanueva
Senior Media Relations Manager

With the quarter finals out of the way, Home Nations rugby fans are licking their lips at the prospect of an England vs Wales Rugby World Cup final with Wales going head to head with South Africa and England needing to overcome New Zealand in this weekend’s fixtures.

The QBE Rugby Predictor, which applies some of the techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, has forecast a Wales vs New Zealand World Cup final with both nations set to emerge as victors in their semi-final clashes.

At the outset of the tournament, the Supercomputer did not predict an English victory were they to meet the All Blacks. However, England already defied the odds last weekend with a spectacular margin over the Wallabies, and could well repeat this performance on Saturday. As it stands though, the Supercomputer forecasts a final score of 17 – 24 to the All Blacks.

Jubilant scenes are more likely in Wales with the Predictor forecasting a 23-18 victory for Wales over the Springboks, sending Wales to their first ever World Cup final.

The predicted scores in each game are based on 10 years of historical data and how well each team has played in the past against opposition of similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team of playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.

Each simulated match uses probabilities and random numbers to generate an outcome. Modelling the entire tournament 3,750 times gives an idea of how far each team will go in the tournament and the chances of this happening.

MATTHEW CRANE, Executive Director of Market Management at QBE, said:
“This weekend’s fixtures are set to be a nail-biting affair, with the quarter finals proving that the unlikely can happen, certainly when it comes to England. In a tournament of surprises, on and off the pitch, anything could happen this weekend. Wales and England need to go into their games prepared for anything and if they do that, we could well see an unprecedented Homes Nations final”


Predicted semi-final scores



New Zealand



South Africa



For further information and interviews please contact:

Mike Houghton
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Mob: +44 (0) 7789 167009

David Felton
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Mob:+44 (0) 7803 214682

Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7105 5284

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About QBE

QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2018, was US$13.7 billion.

As a business insurance specialist, QBE European Operations offers a range of insurance products from the standard suite of property, casualty and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine and energy. All are tailored to the individual needs of our small, medium and large client base.

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Your contact

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Sandra Villanueva

Sandra Villanueva

Head of Media Relations & Content, QBE International