The QBE Rugby Predictor has predicted victories for England and Wales this weekend, meaning that the Guinness Six Nations title will likely be decided on the final weekend of play.
England are expected to easily beat Italy, with the QBE Supercomputer forecasting a 40 - 16 result. Wales, on the back of their electric performance against England, are on course to beat Scotland 22-16, keeping their Grand Slam hopes alive.
Despite their loss against Wales, England are still favourites to win the tournament with a 49% chance of taking the title. The Supercomputer takes into account their two bonus points and their relatively simple remaining fixture against Italy and the more challenging one against Scotland. Wales, on the other hand, have no bonus points and a challenging game against Ireland to come. As a result, the predictor gives them a 36% probability of winning the tournament. Ireland have struggled so far, and the pre-tournament favourites have been given a slim 15% probability of coming out on top.
QBE Business Insurance has applied some of the techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods to develop a formula to forecast the outcome of rugby matches. This formula has been used to simulate the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games.
MATTHEW CRANE, Executive Director of Market Management at QBE, said:
“As the Six Nations approaches its conclusion, we still have three teams who are capable of taking home the trophy. Going into the tournament it did not look like Ireland would have much opposition but week after week the unlikely has happened and the teams that were prepared have come out on top. The key to managing unpredictability is preparation and with two weekends to go, I look forward to seeing what further surprises are in store and how the teams react.”
With Wales the only unbeaten team left in the Six Nations and the only team in the running for the Triple Crown, the QBE Business Insurance actuaries have given them a 27% of claiming the Grand Slam and also of claiming the battle of the home nations.
In the other game this weekend, Ireland are expected to prevail over France, by a score line of 27-12, to keep their faint Six Nations hopes alive into the final weekend.
The predictions are based on an analysis by QBE Business Insurance actuaries of scores, results, past events and incidents over the last five years using a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams, the caps of each captain, latest world ranking and home/away advantage.
UPDATED PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOURNAMENT:
Grand Slam Winner
Triple Crown Winner
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