QBE actuaries have correctly predicted the results in seven of the nine matches in this year’s RBS 6 Nations tournament
Having run the complex mathematical formula to include the results to date England chance of winning has reduced since the last round of games, although they are still the favourites to win. The Predictor suggests that England has a 44% of winning the Grand Slam but it is more likely that no team will win it (56%).
The predicted results for this weekend’s games are Ireland to beat Wales at the Principality Stadium 24-19 and France to beat Italy 28-16. England are the favourites (85% chance) to lift the Calcutta Cup this weekend with the Predictor suggesting a win of 30-14 against Scotland.
The actuaries came closest to a correct score prediction in the game between France and Scotland with a 22 – 15 prediction, only one out from the actual score of 22 – 16. Additionally, the Predictor was only one out in the points difference in the Wales-England match.
The actuaries, whose day job is to predict the likelihood and impact of events that place businesses at risk, inputted a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams, the caps of each captain, latest world ranking and home/away advantage.
The computer model, which has simulated the tournament 10,000 times to produce outcomes from 150,000 games, indicates that England have a 71% likelihood of winning the tournament (down 2% before week three), Ireland in second place (25% chance) and Scotland now third (4%). It is still possible for Wales or France to win the championship but is very unlikely. The Predictor suggests that England is likely to win, followed by Ireland, Scotland, France, Wales and then Italy.
The formula takes into account the introduction of bonus points in the new scoring system and suggests that thanks to Ireland’s gain from bonus points across the tournament, the final game between England and Ireland will be the competition decider.
MATTHEW CRANE, Director of UK & Ireland QBE Insurance, said:
“Rugby teams are not that different from businesses as they have to understand the risks and prepare for every eventuality.
“On a daily basis QBE applies science like that behind this model to different sectors such as transport, construction, and financial services. These live tools improve thousands of businesses, from micro SMEs to multinational corporations by helping to recognise perils and mitigate against potential losses.
“However, nothing is certain which illustrates the unpredictability of life. And that’s the point. You can’t predict with 100% certainty, which is why risk management is an essential ingredient in business planning.
The QBE Rugby Predictor has been near spot on with its predictions but it did not expect Scotland to beat Ireland in the opening week or Scotland to beat Wales in the last set of games. With the game between England-Ireland looking set to be the decider there is still all to play for.”
PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND’S GAMES
England v Scotland - Saturday
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Notes to editors: