QBE Predictor suggests still all to play for in 6 Nations

Having run the complex mathematical formula to include the results to date England chance of winning has reduced since the last round of games, although they are still the favourites to win.  The Predictor suggests that England has a 44% of winning the Grand Slam but it is more likely that no team will win it (56%).

The predicted results for this weekend’s games are Ireland to beat Wales at the Principality Stadium 24-19 and France to beat Italy 28-16.  England are the favourites (85% chance) to lift the Calcutta Cup this weekend with the Predictor suggesting a win of 30-14 against Scotland.

The actuaries came closest to a correct score prediction in the game between France and Scotland with a 22 – 15 prediction, only one out from the actual score of 22 – 16. Additionally, the Predictor was only one out in the points difference in the Wales-England match.

The actuaries, whose day job is to predict the likelihood and impact of events that place businesses at risk, inputted a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams, the caps of each captain, latest world ranking and home/away advantage.

The computer model, which has simulated the tournament 10,000 times to produce outcomes from 150,000 games, indicates that England have a 71% likelihood of winning the tournament (down 2% before week three), Ireland in second place (25% chance) and Scotland now third (4%).  It is still possible for Wales or France to win the championship but is very unlikely.  The Predictor suggests that England is likely to win, followed by Ireland, Scotland, France, Wales and then Italy.  

The formula takes into account the introduction of bonus points in the new scoring system and suggests that thanks to Ireland’s gain from bonus points across the tournament, the final game between England and Ireland will be the competition decider.

MATTHEW CRANE, Director of UK & Ireland QBE Insurance, said:

“Rugby teams are not that different from businesses as they have to understand the risks and prepare for every eventuality.

“On a daily basis QBE applies science like that behind this model to different sectors such as transport, construction, and financial services. These live tools improve thousands of businesses, from micro SMEs to multinational corporations by helping to recognise perils and mitigate against potential losses. 

“However, nothing is certain which illustrates the unpredictability of life. And that’s the point. You can’t predict with 100% certainty, which is why risk management is an essential ingredient in business planning.

The QBE Rugby Predictor has been near spot on with its predictions but it did not expect Scotland to beat Ireland in the opening week or Scotland to beat Wales in the last set of games.  With the game between England-Ireland looking set to be the decider there is still all to play for.”

PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND’S GAMES

• Wales v Ireland - Friday
  
• Expected score: Wales 19-24 Ireland
  
  Probabilities
• Wales win - 36%
• Ireland win - 61%
• Draw - 3%
• Expected tries in game - 4
• Ireland has a 20% chance of winning with a bonus point
• If Ireland win, Wales has a 33% chance of getting at least 1 bonus point

• Italy v France - Saturday
• Expected score: Italy 16-28 France
  
  Probabilities
• Italy win - 21%
• France win - 76%
• Draw - 32%
• Expected tries in game – 4
• France has a 35% chance of winning with a bonus point
• If France win, Italy has a 21% chance of getting at least 1 bonus point

England v Scotland - Saturday

• Expected score England 30-14 Scotland
  
  Probabilities
• England win - 85%
• Scotland win - 13%
• Draw - 2%
• Expected tries in game – 4
• England has a 41% chance of winning with a bonus point
• If England win, Scotland has a 17% chance of getting at least 1 bonus point

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For further information and interviews please contact:

Sara Williams
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Email: sara.williams@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

David Felton
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Email: david.felton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7105 5284
Email: Sandra.villanueva@uk.qbe.com

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Notes to editors: 

• QBE Business Insurance is a Principal Partner of the British & Irish Lions
• QBE Insurance Group is Standard & Poor’s ‘A+’ rated and is one of the world's leading international insurers and reinsurers, headquartered in Sydney, Australia. We operate in 37 countries with a presence in all key insurance markets, and are lead underwriters within our chosen markets, setting rates and conditions
• In Europe, QBE offers an extensive range of business insurance products from the standard suite of property, liability and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine, energy and political risk. QBE works in partnership with insurance intermediaries to deliver tailored cover to businesses from sole traders, via its online trading platform, to SMEs, large corporates and global multinationals.