QBE Predictor forecasts Ireland to beat Wales in Six Nations curtain-raiser

The QBE Predictor has concluded that Ireland are second favourites (to England at 46%), with a 17% chance of claiming a fourth Championship in nine years. The Predictor also gives Wales and France a 15% chance of success and Scotland come in at 7%.

Ireland is predicted to beat Wales 25-18 at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. The Irish success in the Autumn Internationals was impressive and they championed a new attacking strategy which took them to victory against the once unbeatable All Blacks. Wales won the 2021 Six Nations by employing a defence-first gameplan and the Predictor gives them a 33% chance of winning against Ireland, although a shift in strategy to match the expansive style of Irish rugby would probably be required to achieve this. The Predictor does not anticipate a Grand Slam winner this year. There is a 73% probability that no team goes unbeaten and a 56% chance of no team winning the Triple Crown.

David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said: “The QBE Predictor is saying that England are favourites to win the Six Nations this year but that Ireland are their closest challengers. The Predictor is also forecasting that Ireland will claim victory in the opening match of the tournament against Wales in what we expect to be an open, expansive and attacking game in Dublin.

“There is a small chance Ireland could win all their games, but the formula makes allowance for upsets and predicts a 73% probability that no-one will win the Grand Slam. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for any outcome, the teams should be prepared to take advantage of any unlikely occurrences and opportunities. This year’s Championship should provide an exciting spectacle for fans.”

The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model by catastrophe planners at QBE. The Predictor applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as natural disasters and simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.

PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOURNAMENT:

PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND’S OPENING GAMES:

The opening match of this year’s Championship sees Ireland host Wales at the Aviva Stadium. The prediction is for a 25-18 win to the home team, with Wales given a 33% chance of coming out on top. Scotland and England are set to play out a 20-20 draw at BT Murrayfield in the second match on Saturday. The Sunday fixture sees Italy travel to Paris and the Predictor only gives the Italians an 8% chance of victory in a match which is envisioned to finish 42-17 to the hosts.

For further information contact:
Charlie Bohan-Hurst, Jefferson Communications, 07847 015225,
Charlie.Bohan-Hurst@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 7105 5284, Sandra.villanueva@uk.qbe.com

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