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New Zealand set to claim 4th World Cup according to the QBE Predictor

By Sandra Villanueva
Head of Media Relations and Content

Prior to the start of the 2023 World Cup the QBE Predictor gave New Zealand a 42% chance of lifting the Webb Ellis Cup for a record fourth time and the updated predictions reaffirm the initial forecast

On Saturday night in Paris, the All Blacks face reigning world champions South Africa, who are also seeking a fourth tournament win and aim to become the second team to retain the title – after New Zealand in 2011 and 2015.

After a shaky start against France in the opening match of the tournament, the All Blacks have gone on an impressive run, beating Ireland, ranked number one in the world at the time, in a World Cup match for the ages before dominantly sweeping aside Argentina last weekend in the semi-final. The All Blacks lead the tournament in points scored (325), tries (48), conversions (35) and clean breaks (81). They are well clear of the second best team in each of these categories. Their try-scoring prowess is highlighted by winger Will Jordan’s current haul of eight tries in the tournament, if he scores again in the final he will set a new tournament record surpassing Jonah Lomu, Bryan Habana and Julian Savea.

While New Zealand had a comfortable victory in their semi-final South Africa certainly did not. Ahead of their match against England no pundits gave the English much of a chance, the QBE Predictor thought South Africa would win, but only narrowly, and this turned out to be true. In fact, South Africa only led for three minutes of the match, crucially they were the final three minutes and they beat England by a solitary point 16-15.

The 1995 final between the All Blacks and Springboks was a close and edgy affair with no tries being scored by either team. It went to extra time before a winning drop goal from Springbok fly half Joel Stransky. Given the try-scoring pedigree of these two teams it is highly unlikely we will see a repeat of the 1995 final. The QBE Predictor forecasts a 28-24 victory for the All Blacks in what will likely be a close but entertaining match and would see New Zealand win three out of the last four tournaments.

On Friday night England face Argentina in the Bronze Final, the dreaded match which no team aims to play in, but will give both teams a chance to bounce back from disappointing semi-final losses and claim third place in the tournament. England will be bruised but buoyed by their surprisingly impressive performance against the Springboks. Steve Borthwick will hope that it is the start of consistent improvement for this English Squad while the South Americans will be looking to claim third place for the second time in their history. The QBE Predictor forecasts a 28-19 win for England and a third place finish that not many would’ve predicted ahead of the tournament.

QBE Predictions:


New Zealand

South Africa

28 - 24




28 - 19


The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model that simulates the tournament 3,750 times producing outcomes from 180,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past eight years against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, and the international experience of each team captain.

For further information contact:
Charlie Bohan-Hurst, Jefferson Communications, 07847 015225,

Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 7105 5284,