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New Zealand and South Africa final, according to QBE Predictor

By Sandra Villanueva
Head of Media Relations and Content

After what many pundits and fans have described as the single best weekend in Rugby World Cup history there are just four teams left with a chance of lifting the Webb Ellis Cup in Paris on 28th October. 

According to the QBE Predictor, the two teams who will make the final are New Zealand and South Africa. Both have lifted the trophy three times, with South Africa the current holders, and whoever wins will set the record as the most successful nation in World Cup history. Before they get there, however, they must get past Argentina and England respectively.


The first semi-final of the weekend sees Argentina take on the All Blacks on Friday night in Paris. Both teams got off to a slow start in the tournament losing their opening matches, Argentina to a well-drilled England side and New Zealand to an awe-inspiring French team cheered on by a partisan crowd. However, both have improved since then. In their quarter-final against Wales last weekend Argentina played some scintillating rugby and put in what was undeniably their best performance for some time. New Zealand played out an epic against an Ireland team ranked number one in the world and came away with a narrow but supremely impressive win. The record between these two teams is heavily weighted in the All Blacks’ favour although Argentina did beat them in Christchurch last year. On form and ability New Zealand should win and this is backed up by the QBE Predictor which has the All Blacks winning by a margin of ten points: 16-26.

On Saturday night in Paris England face South Africa in a repeat of the final from four years ago. On that night in Yokohama England were beaten comfortably as South Africa ran away with the match winning by twenty points. Since then, the sides have met twice and have won one apiece. England have surprised many pundits by progressing to the semi-final stage. Their pre-tournament form was poor and was capped off by a first ever loss to Fiji at Twickenham just two weeks before the World Cup kicked off. Although they have not been particularly impressive this tournament their performance at the weekend against Fiji was their best so far and showed glimpses of what they can do when it clicks for them.

On the other hand South Africa put in arguably the performance of the tournament so far to beat hosts France by one point. The match was fast and intense, showing that the Springboks may be even better than the team that won the World Cup in 2019. For England to stand a chance they will need to improve further and hope that South Africa are off their game. The QBE Predictor forecasts a close match between the two sides but with the Springboks winning by four points: 19-23.

Of the nine World Cups, eight have been won by Southern Hemisphere sides and according to the QBE Predictor this is likely to continue. Prior to the tournament Ireland were ranked number one and France were number two, their losses at the weekend highlight the prowess that the Southern Hemisphere teams have in the World Cup. The QBE Predictor had New Zealand as favourites to lift the trophy prior to the tournament. As always, teams must be prepared for a number of eventualities and therefore a surprise Argentina v England final is not completely off the table.

Semi-final predictions:



New Zealand

16 – 26



South Africa

19 – 23


David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said:
“The Predictor backs New Zealand and South Africa to progress to the final but in matches with close scorelines, underlining the point that we must be prepared for surprise outcomes. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for unexpected events , the players and coaches should be preparing for unlikely occurrences and how to take advantage too.”

The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model that simulates the tournament 3,750 times producing outcomes from 180,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past eight years against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, and the international experience of each team captain.

For further information contact:
• Charlie Bohan-Hurst, Jefferson Communications, 07847 015225,

• Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 7105 5284,