The stage is set for the big finale after a weekend of semi-final surprises. The QBE supercomputer predicts England will put to rest their 2007 defeat to South Africa by beating the Springboks with a slim two-point margin on Saturday.
The QBE Rugby Predictor, which applies some of the techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, has calculated that England will just have the edge over South Africa with a 22-20 victory. In a tournament defined by unexpected performances, the final could clearly go either way.
The predicted scores in each game are based on 10 years of historical data and how well each team has played in the past against opposition of similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team of playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.
MATTHEW CRANE, Executive Director of Market Management at QBE, said:
“We’ve learned to expect the unexpected in this World Cup, both teams defied the odds to make it to the final and it’s hard to predict what either side will pull out of the bag on Saturday. Just as we advise the businesses we insure to prepare for every eventuality, England need to do the same. The Springboks are a notoriously stubborn side to beat so Eddie Jones’ men will need a plan B on the day. One thing’s for sure, we are in for a tense 80 minutes.”
Meanwhile, New Zealand are expected to triumph over Wales with a 30 17 score line in the fight for third place.
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QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2018, was US$13.7 billion.
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