A complex mathematical formula created by actuaries who predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods has been used to predict the outcome of this year’s RBS 6 Nations tournament.
QBE Business Insurance, today (1 February 2016) reveals its predictions for this year’s tournament, based on analysis by its actuarial team of a wide range of variables and 10 years of past events and incidents.
The computer model, which has simulated the tournament 10,000 times to produce outcomes from 150,000 games, indicates that Ireland has a 35% chance of winning the tournament.
The new findings reveal that Ireland are firm favourites to win their third consecutive tournament and have a 11% chance of winning the Grand Slam. England are the second favourite to win (30%), France the third favourite (17%), Wales fourth (14%), Scotland the fifth favourite (4%) and Italy the least likely to win (0%).
Ireland are also predicted to win the Triple Crown (20%) and England should win the Calcutta Cup (70%).
Actuaries, who are more used to predicting events that put businesses at risk, inputted a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by team, the caps of each captain, form of the team and home/away advantage.
MATTHEW CRANE, Director of Middle Market and SME at QBE Insurance, said:
“Predictive analytics is either a dark art or a science, depending who you talk to. Rugby teams are not that different from businesses as they have to understand the risks and prepare for every eventuality.
“On a daily basis QBE applies science like that behind this model to different sectors such as transport, construction, and financial services. These live tools improve thousands of businesses, from micro SMEs to multinational corporations by helping to recognise perils and mitigate against potential losses.
“However, nothing is certain. As we saw in last year’s World Cup there is never a sure outcome. England’s inability to escape the Group of Death ultimately came down to a chance decision, either in the shape of Chris Robshaw’s call not to take the last minute penalty kick or Dan Biggar’s 74th minute drop goal for Wales from the halfway line. The Rugby Predictor is also a bit fun that uses just one of the many tools of analysis our experts would combine in reality.” Matthew said.
To date, the QBE Rugby Predictor has had an 83% success rate. During the World Cup, QBE correctly predicted the outcome of 38 out of the 47 Matches, closely matched many of the scores (including those below) and correctly determined that New Zealand would win the tournament.
Match S Africa v Wales QBE Predicted 23-20 Outcome 23-19 Spread 1 point out
Match Ireland v Romania QBE Predicted 40-8 Outcome 44-10 Spread 2 points out
Match France v Italy QBE Predicted 33-14 Outcome 32-10 Spread 3 points out
Indicative scores for RBS 6 Nations:
France 33 Italy 12
Scotland 13 England 21
Ireland 32 Wales 21
France 20 Ireland 22
Wales 26 Scotland 21
Italy 13 England 30
Wales 23 France 19
Italy 15 Scotland 30
England 25 Ireland 21
Ireland 44 Italy 11
England 26 Wales 20
Scotland 14 France 20
Wales 39 Italy 12
Ireland 30 Scotland 19
France 18 England 17
For further information please contact:
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7105 5284
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Attachments: The formula
How the formula works
Notes to editors: