QBE Predictor forecasts England to be Six Nations champions

The QBE Predictor has concluded that England has a 46% chance of winning this year’s tournament, compared to Ireland at 17%, Wales and France at 15% and Scotland at 7%.

Given Scotland’s strong performance and England’s poor performance in the 6 Nations last year, the Predictor is also saying that this year’s Calcutta Cup will be a draw at 20-20 points each. The Predictor does not anticipate a Grand Slam winner this year, predicting only a 16% probability for England, although England has been given a 56% chance of winning the Triple Crown.

David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said: “The QBE Predictor is saying that England are strong favourites to win the Six Nations this year by a considerable margin over all the other teams. However, the Predictor is also forecasting that England will draw the Calcutta Cup tomorrow with a rejuvenated Scotland at 20 points each in what we expect to be an open, expansive and attacking game.

“There is a chance England could win all their games, but the formula makes allowance for upsets and predicts a 73% probability that no-one will win the Grand Slam with England given just a 16% chance. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for any outcome, the teams should be prepared to take advantage of any unlikely occurrences and opportunities. This year’s Championship should provide an exciting spectacle for fans.”

The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model by catastrophe planners at QBE. The Predictor, applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as natural disasters and simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.

PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOURNAMENT:

PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND’S OPENING GAMES:

The opening match of this year’s Championship sees Ireland host Wales at the Aviva Stadium. The prediction is for a 25-18 win to the home team, with Wales given a 33% chance of coming out on top. Scotland and England are set to play out a 20-20 draw at BT Murrayfield in the second match on Saturday. The Sunday fixture sees Italy travel to Paris and the Predictor only gives the Italians an 8% chance of victory in a match which is envisioned to finish 42-17 to the hosts.

For further information contact:
Charlie Bohan-Hurst, Jefferson Communications, 07847 015225,
Charlie.Bohan-Hurst@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 7105 5284, Sandra.villanueva@uk.qbe.com

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