England’s flying start to the Guinness Six Nations championship could come to an abrupt end this weekend with QBE Business Insurance catastrophe planners predicting a narrow win for Wales at the Principality Stadium
Despite England’s impressive wins in the first two games of the tournament QBE actuaries, using a complex mathematical formula and computer model, have forecast a narrow 20 -19 victory for Wales.
The QBE supercomputer applies some of the techniques used to predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods. Actuaries have used this complex mathematical formula and computer model to simulate the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games.
This forecasts a Wales victory as the most likely outcome on Saturday in what is certain to be a highly charged atmosphere in the Principality Stadium.
While predicting a Wales win on Saturday afternoon, the actuaries make England strong favourites to win the Six Nations tournament following their victories over Ireland and France. England have a 73% chance of winning the tournament with Wales second with an 18% probability.
MATTHEW CRANE, Executive Director of Market Management at QBE, said:
“Anything can happen in rugby as in business so regardless of what careful analysis predicts, we need to be prepared for all outcomes. England have exceeded expectations and are at the top of their game but there are always surprises around the corner. The teams should prepare for the unexpected this weekend, so they are in the best position to take advantage of opportunities that may result”.
The supercomputer continues to predict there will be no winner of the Grand Slam, although England’s chances have improved from 25% to 31% following the win over France. It also predicts that there will be no winner of the Triple Crown, although England’s chances have again improved with a 34% probability of success.
Wales have a 14% chance of winning the Grand Slam and the same probability of lifting the Triple Crown.
In the weekend’s other matches the supercomputer predicts a tight game in Paris with France and Scotland drawing 22-22 and a clear win for Ireland against Italy in Rome (11-49)
The predictions are based on an analysis by QBE Business Insurance actuaries of scores, results, past events and incidents over the last 5 years using a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams, the caps of each captain, latest world ranking and home/away advantage.
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QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2017, was US$14.1 billion.
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