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QBE Supercomputer predicts Six Nations win for England

By Alexis Burris
Media Relations Adviser

England are clear favourites to win the Guinness Six Nations tournament according to predictions by catastrophe planners at QBE Business Insurance using a complex mathematical formula and computer model.

Following disappointment at the World Cup, Eddie Jones’s refreshed team have a lot to prove in the Six Nations. With an injection of new uncapped talent, the QBE supercomputer indicates that this might be just the right approach.

The QBE Rugby Predictor, which applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games. The experts have concluded that England lead the field with a 53% chance of winning this year’s tournament. Closest challengers are likely to be Ireland with a 22% chance followed by Wales with a 16% probability of taking the title.

Scotland come fourth with a 5% chance of being crowned champions, France fifth with a 4% chance of winning and Italy bring up the rear with no chance at all.

Although predictions are calling for an England win, they are unlikely to be a Grand Slam winner, with the computer predicting a 20% probability for an England Grand Slam and a 31% chance of them winning the Triple Crown.

The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of scores, results, past events and incidents over the last 10 years using a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams, the caps of each captain, latest world ranking and home and away advantage.

MATTHEW CRANE, Executive Director of Market Management at QBE, said:

“We can put all the science in the world into predicting the future, but we can never be 100% sure. There is a lot of uncapped talent in the new squad so all eyes will be on how resilient these players are if they encounter tough or unexpected performances from the opposition. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for any outcome, the teams should take heed of this advice too”.

Overall Winner

Winning team

QBE prediction

England

53%

Ireland

22%

Wales

16%

Scotland

5%

France

4%

Italy

0%

   
   

Grand Slam

Team

QBE prediction

None

67%

England

20%

Ireland

6%

Wales

5%

Scotland

1%

France

1%

Italy

0%

   
   

Triple Crown

Team

QBE prediction

None

48%

England

31%

Ireland

11%

Wales

8%

Scotland

2%


PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND’S OPENING GAMES:

 

The France-England match at the Stade de France on Sunday is predicted to be a comfortable 27-19 win for England while in the two Saturday games Wales are set to cruise to a 38-16 win over Italy and in Dublin the actuaries predict a 26-16 victory for Ireland over Scotland.

Listed below are the supercomputer’s predictions for each of the five rounds of the tournament.

Score Prediction

Outcome Probability

 

Home

Away

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

 

Wales

38

16

Italy

88%

1%

11%

 

Ireland

26

16

Scotland

75%

3%

23%

 

France

19

27

England

29%

3%

69%

 

Ireland

21

19

Wales

53%

3%

44%

 

Scotland

21

26

England

37%

2%

60%

 

France

31

20

Italy

73%

2%

25%

 

Italy

14

29

Scotland

15%

2%

83%

 

Wales

19

14

France

63%

4%

33%

 

England

27

18

Ireland

71%

2%

27%

 

Ireland

40

18

Italy

87%

1%

12%

 

England

26

17

Wales

71%

2%

27%

 

Scotland

18

20

France

45%

3%

52%

 

Wales

25

16

Scotland

70%

2%

28%

 

Italy

10

38

England

4%

1%

95%

 

France

15

22

Ireland

29%

3%

68%

 
               
               


For further information and interviews please contact:

 

Mike Houghton

Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912

Mob: +44 (0) 7789 167009

Email: Mike.Houghton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

David Felton

Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912

Mob: + 44 (0) 7803 214682

Email: david.felton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

Alexis Burris, Corporate Communications

Tel: + 44 (0) 20 3465 3921105 5284

Email: alexis.burris@uk.qbe.com

Visit us on the web at www.QBEeurope.com

Follow us on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/qbeeo


About QBE

QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2017, was US$14.1 billion.

As a business insurance specialist, QBE European Operations offers a range of insurance products from the standard suite of property, casualty and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine and energy. All are tailored to the individual needs of our small, medium and large client base.We understand the crucial role that effective risk management plays in all organisations and work hard to understand our clients’ businesses so that we offer insurance solutions that meet their needs – from complex programmes to simpler e-trading solutions – and support them in minimising their risk exposures. Our expert risk management and rehabilitation practitioners focus on helping clients improve their risk management so that they may benefit from a reduction in claims frequency and costs.

Your contact

Your contact

Alexis Burris

Alexis Burris

Media Relations Adviser

Tel: +44 203 465 3921

Alexis.Burris@uk.qbe.com