England are clear favourites to win the Guinness Six Nations tournament according to predictions by catastrophe planners at QBE Business Insurance using a complex mathematical formula and computer model.
Following disappointment at the World Cup, Eddie Jones’s refreshed team have a lot to prove in the Six Nations. With an injection of new uncapped talent, the QBE supercomputer indicates that this might be just the right approach.
The QBE Rugby Predictor, which applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games. The experts have concluded that England lead the field with a 53% chance of winning this year’s tournament. Closest challengers are likely to be Ireland with a 22% chance followed by Wales with a 16% probability of taking the title.
Scotland come fourth with a 5% chance of being crowned champions, France fifth with a 4% chance of winning and Italy bring up the rear with no chance at all.
Although predictions are calling for an England win, they are unlikely to be a Grand Slam winner, with the computer predicting a 20% probability for an England Grand Slam and a 31% chance of them winning the Triple Crown.
The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of scores, results, past events and incidents over the last 10 years using a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams, the caps of each captain, latest world ranking and home and away advantage.
MATTHEW CRANE, Executive Director of Market Management at QBE, said:
“We can put all the science in the world into predicting the future, but we can never be 100% sure. There is a lot of uncapped talent in the new squad so all eyes will be on how resilient these players are if they encounter tough or unexpected performances from the opposition. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for any outcome, the teams should take heed of this advice too”.
|
Overall Winner |
|
|
Winning team |
QBE prediction |
|
England |
53% |
|
Ireland |
22% |
|
Wales |
16% |
|
Scotland |
5% |
|
France |
4% |
|
Italy |
0% |
|
Grand Slam |
|
|
Team |
QBE prediction |
|
None |
67% |
|
England |
20% |
|
Ireland |
6% |
|
Wales |
5% |
|
Scotland |
1% |
|
France |
1% |
|
Italy |
0% |
|
Triple Crown |
|
|
Team |
QBE prediction |
|
None |
48% |
|
England |
31% |
|
Ireland |
11% |
|
Wales |
8% |
|
Scotland |
2% |
PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND’S OPENING GAMES:
The France-England match at the Stade de France on Sunday is predicted to be a comfortable 27-19 win for England while in the two Saturday games Wales are set to cruise to a 38-16 win over Italy and in Dublin the actuaries predict a 26-16 victory for Ireland over Scotland.
Listed below are the supercomputer’s predictions for each of the five rounds of the tournament.
|
Score Prediction |
Outcome Probability |
||||||
|
Home |
Away |
Home Win |
Draw |
Away Win |
|||
|
Wales |
38 |
16 |
Italy |
88% |
1% |
11% |
|
|
Ireland |
26 |
16 |
Scotland |
75% |
3% |
23% |
|
|
France |
19 |
27 |
England |
29% |
3% |
69% |
|
|
Ireland |
21 |
19 |
Wales |
53% |
3% |
44% |
|
|
Scotland |
21 |
26 |
England |
37% |
2% |
60% |
|
|
France |
31 |
20 |
Italy |
73% |
2% |
25% |
|
|
Italy |
14 |
29 |
Scotland |
15% |
2% |
83% |
|
|
Wales |
19 |
14 |
France |
63% |
4% |
33% |
|
|
England |
27 |
18 |
Ireland |
71% |
2% |
27% |
|
|
Ireland |
40 |
18 |
Italy |
87% |
1% |
12% |
|
|
England |
26 |
17 |
Wales |
71% |
2% |
27% |
|
|
Scotland |
18 |
20 |
France |
45% |
3% |
52% |
|
|
Wales |
25 |
16 |
Scotland |
70% |
2% |
28% |
|
|
Italy |
10 |
38 |
England |
4% |
1% |
95% |
|
|
France |
15 |
22 |
Ireland |
29% |
3% |
68% |
|
For further information and interviews please contact:
Mike Houghton
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Mob: +44 (0) 7789 167009
Email: Mike.Houghton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk
David Felton
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Mob: + 44 (0) 7803 214682
Email: david.felton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk
Alexis Burris, Corporate Communications
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 3465 3921105 5284
Email: alexis.burris@uk.qbe.com
Visit us on the web at www.QBEeurope.com
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About QBE
QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2017, was US$14.1 billion.
As a business insurance specialist, QBE European Operations offers a range of insurance products from the standard suite of property, casualty and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine and energy. All are tailored to the individual needs of our small, medium and large client base.We understand the crucial role that effective risk management plays in all organisations and work hard to understand our clients’ businesses so that we offer insurance solutions that meet their needs – from complex programmes to simpler e-trading solutions – and support them in minimising their risk exposures. Our expert risk management and rehabilitation practitioners focus on helping clients improve their risk management so that they may benefit from a reduction in claims frequency and costs.