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QBE Supercomputer predicts most competitive Six Nations in years with league table going topsy-turvy

The early fixtures in this year’s Guinness Six Nations tournament have brought their fair share of surprises with pre-tournament favourites England looking more than a little shaky and outsiders France getting off to a flying start with two dominant victories.

However, according to predictions by catastrophe planners at QBE Business Insurance using a complex mathematical formula and computer model, table-toppers France and Ireland are both set to lose their games this weekend, turning the table on its head and setting up a potentially nail-biting finish to this year’s tournament.

The QBE Rugby Predictor, which applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games. The experts have concluded that England will push aside Ireland with a 27-18 victory at Twickenham, while Wales will defeat the on form France 19-14 at the Principality Stadium, leaving only a few points separating the four teams in the battle for first place going into the final two weeks of the tournament.

Ireland’s early form has meant they have moved into pole position as favourites to win the tournament with the Predictor giving them a 46% chance of glory, while England’s jittery start has meant they have moved down to second favourites with a 36% chance of ending the tournament as champions.

The tough competition at this year’s tournament has meant that a Grand Slam winner is unlikely with the supercomputer predicting an 80% chance of no-one winning the Grand Slam. Only Ireland have a chance of finishing the tournament undefeated of 15%.

The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of scores, results, past events and incidents over the last 10 years using a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams, the caps of each captain, latest world ranking and home and away advantage.

Sam Harrison, Managing Director of Insurance at QBE Europe, said: “We can put all the science in the world into predicting the future, but we can never be 100% sure. We have already seen a few surprise results in the opening fixtures and the supercomputers predictions suggest there may be a few more surprises yet to come. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for many different outcomes, the teams need to be at their resilient best to overcome the opposition this weekend.”

 

PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOURNAMENT:

 

 

Overall Winner

 

Winning team

 

QBE prediction

England

 

36%

Ireland

 

46%

Wales

 

6%

Scotland

 

0%

France

 

12%

Italy

 

0%

 

 

Grand Slam

Team

 

QBE prediction

None

 

80%

England

 

0%

Ireland

 

15%

Wales

 

0%

Scotland

 

0%

France

 

5%

Italy

 

0%

 

Triple Crown

Team

 

QBE prediction

None

 

23%

England

 

51%

Ireland

 

26%

Wales

 

0%

Scotland

 

0%

 

Score Prediction

Outcome Probability

 

Home

Away

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

 

Italy

14

29

Scotland

15%

2%

83%

 

Wales

19

14

France

63%

4%

33%

 

England

27

18

Ireland

71%

2%

27%

 
                             

 

 

For further information and interviews please contact:

 

Mike Houghton

Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912

Mob: +44 (0) 7789 167009

Email: Mike.Houghton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

 

David Felton

Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912

Mob: + 44 (0) 7803 214682

Email: david.felton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

Alexis Burris, Media Relations Adviser

Tel : +44 203 465 3921

Email: alexis.burris@uk.qbe.com

Visit us on the web at www.QBEeurope.com

Follow us on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/qbeeo

About QBE

 

QBE helps businesses build resilience through risk management and insurance. 

 

QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2019 was US$13.4 billion.

As a business insurance specialist, QBE European Operations offers a range of insurance products from the standard suite of property, casualty and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine and energy. All are tailored to the individual needs of our small, medium and large client base.

We understand the crucial role that effective risk management plays in all organisations and work hard to understand our clients’ businesses so that we offer insurance solutions that meet their needs – from complex programmes to simpler e-trading solutions – and support them in minimising their risk exposures. Our expert risk management and rehabilitation practitioners focus on helping clients improve their risk management so that they may benefit from a reduction in claims frequency and costs.

Your contact

Your contact

Alexis Burris

Alexis Burris

Media Relations Adviser

Tel: +44 203 465 3921

Alexis.Burris@uk.qbe.com