QBE predictor forecasts Wales to end French Grand Slam hopes

The QBE Predictor shows that Wales has a 55% chance of victory compared to France at 42% as well as a 3% chance of a draw. This fixture has been closely fought over the most recent Championships; the last four times the two sides have faced off the winning team has not won by more than five points on any occasion and the spoils have been shared two apiece. The match tomorrow evening in Cardiff is predicted to finish 21-19 to Wales; a result that would see the recent run of tight score lines continue.

The QBE Predictor favours Wales to beat France tomorrow despite the unbeaten run which the French have gone on in the first three rounds of the tournament. The overall predictions have changed significantly because of last week’s results. The likelihood of France winning the Six Nations has risen from 26% to 39% and the likelihood of a Grand Slam title has doubled from 7% to 14% - despite the Predictor forecasting a loss tomorrow. The Predictor does not anticipate a Grand Slam or Triple Crown winner this year; France is given a just a 14% chance of a Grand Slam and Ireland a 13% chance of a Triple Crown, no other teams can achieve either feat. However, England are still favourites to win the Championship outright with the Predictor giving them a 48% likelihood.

David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said: “The QBE Predictor has rewarded France for its success in the tournament to date and increased its chances of winning the Championship although England are still favourites to win outright.

“There is a small chance France could win all their games, but the formula predicts an 86% probability that no-one will win the Grand Slam. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for any outcome, the teams should be prepared to take advantage of any unlikely occurrences and opportunities. This year’s Championship should continue to provide an exciting spectacle for fans.” 

The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model by catastrophe planners at QBE. The Predictor applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as natural disasters and simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.

PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOURNAMENT:

PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND’S GAMES:

The opening match of Round Four sees Wales host France at the Principality Stadium. The QBE Predictor expects a 21-19 win for the home team, with France given a 42% chance of coming out on top. Italy host Scotland in the second match of the round and both teams will be playing for the newly unveiled Cuttitta Cup – the Italian losing streak is set to continue with the hosts only given a 5% chance of victory. The final fixture sees Ireland travel to Twickenham to face an English side who are given an 81% chance of victory. Despite positive performances so far Ireland is only given a 17% chance of success and a 2% chance of coming away from Twickenham with a draw.

For further information contact:

• Charlie Bohan-Hurst, Jefferson Communications, 07847 015225,
  Bohan-Hurst@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk
• Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 7105 5284, villanueva@uk.qbe.com

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