QBE Predictor forecasts Wales to bounce back from disappointment in Dublin

The Predictor is saying that Wales have a 63% chance of victory compared to Scotland at 34% as well as a 3% chance of a draw. Home advantage and fans back in stadiums plays an important role, just as it did at Murrayfield last weekend. The match is predicted to finish 21-16 to Wales; a result that would extend Scotland’s Six Nations losing streak in Cardiff to 20 years and highlight their long-standing inconsistency.

Although the Predictor favours Wales to beat Scotland tomorrow despite their heroics in Edinburgh, the overall predictions have changed significantly because of last week’s results. The likelihood of Wales retaining the Six Nations crown has fallen by more than a half from 15% to 6% whilst Scotland’s chances of winning the Championship have improved to 10% from 7%. The Predictor does not anticipate a Grand Slam or Triple Crown winner this year; having lost their first match both are impossible for Wales to achieve and the Predictor only gives Scotland a 3% chance of a Grand Slam and a 7% chance of a Triple Crown.

David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said:

“The QBE Predictor has rewarded Scotland for its impressive victory over England at Murrayfield and increased its chances of winning the Championship, Grand Slam and Triple Crown, although ultimately it sees Wales running out as victors at home this weekend.”

“There is a small chance Scotland could win all their games, but the formula predicts an 89% probability that no-one will win the Grand Slam with the Scots given just a 3% chance. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for any outcome, the teams should be prepared to take advantage of any unlikely occurrences and opportunities. This year’s Championship should continue to provide an exciting spectacle for fans.”

The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model by catastrophe planners at QBE. The Predictor applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as natural disasters and simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.

PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOURNAMENT:

PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND’S OPENING GAMES:

The opening match of Round Two sees Wales host Scotland in Cardiff. The prediction is for a 21-16 win to the home team, with Scotland given a 34% chance of coming out on top. France and Ireland are set to play out a tightly contested 21-20 win for the French in Paris in the second match on Saturday. The Sunday fixture sees England travel to Italy as they look to bounce back from the loss to Scotland and the Predictor only gives the Italians a 2% chance of upsetting the English, a 7-40 result is predicted.

For further information contact:
• Charlie Bohan-Hurst, Jefferson Communications, 07847 015225,
Charlie.Bohan-Hurst@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

• Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 7105 5284, Sandra.villanueva@uk.qbe.com

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