QBE Predictor forecasts Scotland will run France extremely close at Murrayfield

The Predictor is saying that France has a 51% chance of victory compared to Scotland at 46% as well as a 3% chance of a draw. This fixture has been competitive in recent Championships with the Scots winning three of the last four meetings between the sides. The match is predicted to finish 19-20 to France; a result that would mean the French stay unbeaten and can continue to eye up their first Grand Slam in over a decade.

The Predictor favours France to beat Scotland tomorrow despite their recent struggles playing at Murrayfield. The overall predictions have changed significantly because of last week’s results. The likelihood of France winning the Six Nations has risen from 18% to 26% and they are now the only team that can win the Grand Slam. The Predictor does not anticipate a Grand Slam or Triple Crown winner this year; France is given a 7% chance of a Grand Slam and Ireland a 13% chance of a Triple Crown, no other teams can achieve either feat. However, England are still favourites to win the Championship outright with the Predictor giving them a 41% likelihood.

David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said:

“The QBE Predictor has rewarded France for its impressive victory over Ireland in Paris and increased its chances of winning the Championship and a Grand Slam, although ultimately it still sees England as favourites to win the tournament.”

“There is a small chance France could win all their games, but the formula predicts a 93% probability that no-one will win the Grand Slam. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for any outcome, the teams should be prepared to take advantage of any unlikely occurrences and opportunities. This year’s Championship should continue to provide an exciting spectacle for fans.”

The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model by catastrophe planners at QBE. The Predictor applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as natural disasters and simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.

PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOURNAMENT:

PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND’S GAMES:

The opening match of Round Three sees Scotland host France in Edinburgh. The prediction is for a 19-20 win to the away team, with Scotland given a 46%% chance of coming out on top. England and Wales are set to play out a tightly contested 27-21 win for the English at Twickenham in the second match on Saturday. The Sunday fixture sees Italy travel to Dublin to face Ireland. The hosts will look to bounce back from the loss to France and the Predictor gives them a 94% chance of doing this. The Italians only have a 6% chance of victory and the match is predicted to finish 45-16.

For further information contact:

Charlie Bohan-Hurst, Jefferson Communications, 07847 015225,
Bohan-Hurst@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk 

Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 7105 5284, villanueva@uk.qbe.com

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