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QBE Predictor forecasts Ireland to secure Triple Crown

By Sandra Villanueva
Senior Media Relations Manager

According to forecasts by QBE Business Insurance, Ireland is set to beat Scotland in Dublin on Saturday.

An Irish victory would mean a first Triple Crown for Ireland since 2018 and would pile the pressure on France who play England in the closing match of the tournament. The QBE Predictor gives Ireland a 76% chance of victory compared to Scotland at 22% as well as a 2% chance of a draw. Ireland has dominated in this fixture in recent times, winning all four of the last Six Nations matches between the two sides. This trend is set to continue with the QBE Predictor forecasting a 26-15 victory for Ireland on Saturday.

The QBE Predictor favours Ireland to beat Scotland on Saturday consigning the Scots to a fifth-place finish in the table despite their promising start against England in the first round. The overall predictions have changed significantly because of last week’s results. The likelihood of France winning the Six Nations has risen from 39% to 74% and the likelihood of a Grand Slam title has increased from 14% to 66%. The Predictor also gives Ireland a chance of Six Nations success – a 26% likelihood and is very confident that Ireland will secure the Triple Crown giving them a 76% chance. France are favourites for the title but it is still a two-horse race.

 

David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said:
“The QBE Predictor has rewarded France for its success in the tournament to date and increased its chances of winning the Championship although Ireland are still in the running.
“There is a significant chance France could win all their games, with the formula predicting a 66% probability of them winning the Grand Slam. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for any outcome, the teams should be prepared to take advantage of any unlikely occurrences and opportunities. This year’s Championship should continue to provide an exciting spectacle for fans.”

The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model by catastrophe planners at QBE. The Predictor applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as natural disasters and simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.

 

 

Winner

 

England

0%

Ireland

26%

Wales

0%

Scotland

        0%

France

74%

Italy

0%

   

Grand Slam

 

None

34%

England

0%

Ireland

0%

Wales

0%

France

66%

Scotland

0%

Italy

0%

   

Triple Crown

 

None

24%

England

0%

Ireland

76%

Wales

0%

Scotland

0%

 

PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND’S GAMES:

The opening match of the final round sees Wales host Italy at the Principality Stadium. The QBE Predictor expects a 38-13 win for the home team, with Italy given just a 6% chance of coming out on top. Ireland host Scotland in the second match of the round and is favoured to win 26-15, taking the Triple Crown in the process. Scotland is given just a 22% chance of success according to the QBE Predictor. The final fixture of the tournament sees England travel to Paris for ‘Le Crunch’ with the home side favoured to win 26-18 and be crowned Grand Slam champions. England is given a 32% chance of soiling the French party and perhaps handing the Championship to Ireland in the process.

 

Score prediction

Outcome Probability

Home

Away

Home Win

Away Win

Draw

Wales

38

13

Italy

93%

6%

1%

Ireland

26

15

Scotland

76%

22%

2%

France

  26

18

England

66%

32%

2%

 



For further information contact:
Charlie Bohan-Hurst, Jefferson Communications, 07847 015225,
Charlie.Bohan-Hurst@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 7105 5284, Sandra.villanueva@uk.qbe.com

About QBE
QBE helps businesses build resilience through risk management and insurance.

QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2021 was US$18.5 billion.

As a business insurance specialist, QBE European Operations offers a range of insurance products from the standard suite of property, casualty and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine and energy. All are tailored to the individual needs of our small, medium and large customer base.

We understand the crucial role that effective risk management plays in all organisations and work hard to understand our customers’ businesses so that we offer insurance solutions that meet their needs – from complex programmes to simpler e-trading solutions – and support them in minimising their risk exposures. Our expert risk management and rehabilitation practitioners focus on helping customers improve their risk management so that they may benefit from a reduction in claims frequency and costs.

 

 

Your contact

Your contact

Sandra Villanueva

Sandra Villanueva

Head of Media Relations & Content, QBE International