QBE Business Insurance actuaries, who have correctly predicted the results in nine of the 12 matches in this year’s RBS 6 Nations tournament, expect England to beat Ireland on Saturday by the narrowest of margins and secure the Grand Slam for the second year running
The QBE Predictor indicates that the score will be 22-21 in England’s favour in Dublin, while France will narrowly beat Wales in Paris and Scotland will beat Italy at Murrayfield.
The actuaries, whose day job is to predict the likelihood and impact of events that place businesses at risk thus helping QBE customers prepare for unforeseen eventualities, however unlikely, inputted a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams, the caps of each captain, latest world ranking and home/away advantage.
Having run the complex mathematical formula to include the results to date the Predictor suggests for the first time that England have more than a 50% chance of winning the Grand Slam. At the start of the tournament the actuaries believed that England had a 21% chance of winning the Grand Slam with a 64% probability that no team would. That has now switched to 51% in England’s favour with no team to win on 49%.
The computer model, which has simulated the tournament 10,000 times to produce outcomes from 150,000 games gives the most likely scenario for each match however no result can be guaranteed, as the unexpected Scottish and Welsh wins over Ireland demonstrated.
MATTHEW CRANE, Director of UK & Ireland QBE Insurance, said:
“The QBE Rugby Predictor has been very accurate with many of its predictions however it shows the limitations of a so called “dead-cert”. Something can always come out of left field. Understanding the risks is an essential ingredient in planning whether in business or sport."
“Rugby teams are not that different from businesses as they have to prepare for every eventuality irrespective of how much a result looks like a definite thing"
“On a daily basis QBE applies science like that behind this model to different sectors such as transport, construction, and financial services. These live tools improve thousands of businesses, from micro SMEs to multinational corporations by helping to recognise perils and mitigate against potential losses.”
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