France to pip Ireland at the post in nail-bitingly close match forecasts QBE predictor

The Predictor is saying that the French have a 52% chance of victory compared to Ireland at 44% as well as a 3% chance of a draw. Home advantage and fans back in stadiums plays an important role, just as it did in Dublin and Edinburgh last weekend. The match is predicted to finish 21-20 to France; a closely-contested result that would end Irish hopes of a Grand Slam but not the Triple Crown.

Although the Predictor favours France to beat Ireland tomorrow, despite the impressive Irish dismantling of Wales last weekend, the overall predictions have changed significantly because of last week’s results. The Predictor now sees Ireland as favourites for the Six Nations crown, they are given a 34% chance of overall success, a 5% chance of winning the Grand Slam and a 13% chance of taking home the Triple Crown. Following on from their five-try win in Rome French chances have improved slightly – 18% chance of winning the tournament and a 3% chance of a Grand Slam.

David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said:

“The QBE Predictor has rewarded Ireland for its impressive victory over Wales and increased its chances of winning the Championship, Grand Slam and Triple Crown, although ultimately it sees Ireland losing out to the French this weekend.”

“There is a small chance both Ireland and France could win all their games, but the formula predicts an 89% probability that no-one will win the Grand Slam with the Ireland given just a 5% chance and France a 3% chance. Ireland also now has a 15% chance of winning the Triple Crown – an occurrence which will not be impacted by this weekend’s result. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for any outcome, the teams should be prepared to take advantage of any unlikely occurrences and opportunities. This year’s Championship should continue to provide an exciting spectacle for fans.”

The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model by catastrophe planners at QBE. The Predictor applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as natural disasters and simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.

PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOURNAMENT:

PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND’S OPENING GAMES:

The opening match of Round Two sees Wales host Scotland in Cardiff. The prediction is for a 21-16 win to the home team, with Scotland given a 34% chance of coming out on top. France and Ireland are set to play out a tightly contested 21-20 win for the French in Paris in the second match on Saturday. The Sunday fixture sees England travel to Italy as they look to bounce back from the loss to Scotland and the Predictor only gives the Italians a 2% chance of upsetting the English, a 7-40 result is predicted.

For further information contact:
• Charlie Bohan-Hurst, Jefferson Communications, 07847 015225,
Charlie.Bohan-Hurst@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

• Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 7105 5284, Sandra.villanueva@uk.qbe.com

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