France to claim first Grand Slam since 2010 says QBE Predictor

Victory for the French would mean a first Grand Slam since 2010 and would put the team in a good place ahead of their home World Cup next year. The QBE Predictor shows that France has a 66% chance of victory compared to England at 32% as well as a 2% chance of a draw. Home advantage has played a crucial role in the recent history of this fixture with the home team coming out on top in all four of the previous Six Nations matches between these two sides. The QBE Predictor sees this trend continuing with France winning 26-18 to secure the title.

The QBE Predictor favours France to beat England on Saturday despite an improved performance in defeat by the 14-man England side against Ireland last weekend. The overall predictions have changed significantly because of last week’s results. The likelihood of France winning the Six Nations has risen from 39% to 74% and the likelihood of a Grand Slam title has increased from 14% to 66%. The Predictor also gives Ireland a chance of Six Nations success – a 26% likelihood and is very confident that Ireland will secure the Triple Crown giving them a 76% chance. France are favourites for the Six Nations title but it is still a two-horse race.

David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said:

“The QBE Predictor has rewarded France for its success in the tournament to date and increased its chances of winning the Championship although Ireland are still in the running.

“There is a significant chance France could win all their games, with the formula predicting a 66% probability of them winning the Grand Slam. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for any outcome, the teams should be prepared to take advantage of any unlikely occurrences and opportunities. This year’s Championship should continue to provide an exciting spectacle for fans.”

The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model by catastrophe planners at QBE. The Predictor applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as natural disasters and simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.

PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND’S GAMES:

The opening match of the final round sees Wales host Italy at the Principality Stadium. The QBE Predictor expects a 38-13 win for the home team, with Italy given just a 6% chance of coming out on top. Ireland host Scotland in the second match of the round and is favoured to win 26-15, taking the Triple Crown in the process. Scotland is given just a 22% chance of success according to the QBE Predictor. The final fixture of the tournament sees England travel to Paris for ‘Le Crunch’ with the home side favoured to win 26-18 and be crowned Grand Slam champions. England is given a 32% chance of soiling the French party and perhaps handing the Championship to Ireland in the process.

For further information contact:
Charlie Bohan-Hurst, Jefferson Communications, 07847 015225,
Charlie.Bohan-Hurst@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 7105 5284, Sandra.villanueva@uk.qbe.com

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