Skip to main content

England hopes of victory rest on nail-biting away fixtures predict QBE number crunchers

England are set to win back-to-back Six Nations tournaments for the second time under Eddie Jones’ stewardship according to predictions by catastrophe planners at QBE Business Insurance using a complex mathematical formula and computer model.

However, their hopes rest on winning two crunch away games to both Wales and Ireland if they are to get their hands on the winning prize.

The QBE Rugby Predictor, which applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games. The experts have concluded that England lead the field with a 53% chance of winning this year’s tournament.

Their closest challengers are likely to be Ireland with a 24% chance followed by Wales with a 13% probability of taking the title. As expected, Scotland and Italy are predicted to have little chance of winning the tournament with Scotland given a 4% chance and Italy with 0% chance of being crowned champions for the first time in their history.

Despite a strong outing in last year’s tournament, finishing level on points with England and only missing out on becoming champions through ‘points difference’, the Predictor has given France little chance of going one better this year, with only a 6% chance of lifting the title. Starting with a solid 12 - 31 away victory against Italy on the opening day the QBE actuaries predicting France to have a tougher time on British shores losing games to both Wales and England.

At a QBE webinar, on Thursday 4th February, entitled 'Lawrence Dallaglio unlocks the secrets of rugby success using the QBE Risk & Reward Index' Lawrence said:

"According to the data presented today in the QBE Risk & Reward Index, England are favourites to win the Six Nations in 2021, with France as a stalking horse.  My prediction is that England will edge the tournament, if as expected they beat France at home, but that they will not win the Grand Slam this year."

The QBE number crunchers predict that England’s hopes of victory rest on the two key away games to Wales and Ireland. The actuarial team have predicted England to win both games, with a 21-22 victory over Wales and 20 – 23 victory over Ireland. However, the tight score lines suggest there will be no margin for error if they are to succeed and the tournament could very well come down to needing to secure victory on the final day against Ireland.

England and Ireland are both predicted to get off to a winning start on the opening day of the tournament, with England predicted to breeze past Scotland 30 – 18. While are Ireland are set for a nervy 20 – 21 away win against Wales in what is the pick of the fixtures in the opening round.

England’s game against Scotland marks a special anniversary of The Calcutta Cup, marking 150 years to the day since the two sides met in the first ever international rugby Test match, at Raeburn Place, Edinburgh in 1871.

The number crunchers do not foresee a Grand Slam this year with a 67% chance their will no Grand Slam for the second year running, with England the most likely to achieve it only given a 19% chance of winning.

The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of scores, results, past events and incidents over the last 10 years using a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams, the caps of each captain, latest world ranking and home and away advantage.

Sam Harrison, Managing Director of Insurance at QBE Europe, adds: “The pandemic caused major disruption to last year’s tournament with first the postponement of games and then later the suspension of the whole tournament. The teams will be more aware than ever of the unpredictable nature of the world we live in and just as we advise businesses to prepare for any outcome, the teams should once again be prepared for the unlikely to become a reality.”

PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOURNAMENT:

 

Overall Winner

Winning team

QBE prediction

England

53%

Ireland

24%

Wales

13%

France

6%

Scotland

4%

Italy

0%

 

Grand Slam

Team

QBE prediction

None

67%

England

19%

Ireland

9%

Wales

4%

France

1%

Scotland

0%

Italy

0%

 

Triple Crown

Team

QBE prediction

None

50%

England

23%

Ireland

13%

Wales

11%

Scotland

3%

   

Score Prediction

Outcome Probability

 

Home

Away

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

 

Italy

12

31

France

10%

88%

1%

 

England

30

18

Scotland

77%

21%

2%

 

Wales

20

21

Ireland

45%

52%

3%

 

England

50

11

Italy

98%

1%

0%

 

Scotland

17

20

Wales

41%

55%

4%

 

Ireland

22

14

France

70%

27%

3%

 

Italy

10

41

Ireland

3%

96%

1%

 

Wales

21

22

England

45%

52%

3%

 

France

24

17

Scotland

64%

33%

3%

 

Italy

9

36

Wales

4%

95%

1%

 

England

34

15

France

88%

11%

1%

 

Scotland

19

24

Ireland

37%

60%

3%

 

Scotland

33

16

Italy

83%

15%

2%

 

Ireland

20

23

England

40%

57%

3%

 

France

21

19

Wales

56%

41%

3%

 
               

 

 

 

For further information and interviews please contact:

 

Mike Houghton

Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912

Mob: +44 (0) 7789 167009

Email: Mike.Houghton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk


Alexis Burris, Corporate Communications

Email: alexis.burris@uk.qbe.com

+44 203 465 3921

Visit us on the web at www.QBEeurope.com

Follow us on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/qbeeo

 

 

About QBE

QBE helps businesses build resilience through risk management and insurance.

QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2019 was US$13.4 billion.

As a business insurance specialist, QBE European Operations offers a range of insurance products from the standard suite of property, casualty and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine and energy. All are tailored to the individual needs of our small, medium and large client base.

We understand the crucial role that effective risk management plays in all organisations and work hard to understand our clients’ businesses so that we offer insurance solutions that meet their needs – from complex programmes to simpler e-trading solutions – and support them in minimising their risk exposures. Our expert risk management and rehabilitation practitioners focus on helping clients improve their risk management so that they may benefit from a reduction in claims frequency and costs.