Actuaries at QBE Business Insurance, whose day job is predicting the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, have turned their hand to predicting the results of the Autumn rugby internationals.
The QBE Predictor is a complex mathematical formula which has been used to simulate each of the 22 Autumn matches 10,000 times. It predicts that England and New Zealand will be the only teams to win all their games.
The actuaries, who usually work on predicting the likelihood and impact of events that put businesses at risk, inputted a wide range of variables in their computer model including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams, the caps of each captain, latest world ranking and home/away advantage.
The fact that England and New Zealand are predicted to emerge as the strongest teams of the Autumn series will underline disappointment that the two teams will not meet this year with their clash being pushed back to autumn 2018.
These are the predicted scores for Saturday’s games:
Scotland 31 Samoa 22
England 38 Argentina 21
Wales 20 Australia 24
Ireland 20 South Africa 20
France 16 New Zealand 35
Italy 20 Fiji 27
The highlight of this weekend’s games could be the meeting in Dublin between Ireland and South Africa, which is predicted to go to the wire and would follow the pattern of Ireland’s 2-1 tour defeat in South Africa in 2016 in which every game was within one score.
There is not much joy in the predictions for the other home nations with Scotland predicted to win only once against Samoa and Wales destined to win one match, against Georgia.
MATTHEW CRANE, Executive Director of Market Management, QBE European Operations, said:
“The science behind the Predictor is tried and tested and one of the tools we use to help businesses understand their risks and mitigate against them. It’s not about knowing what will happen, it’s about being prepared for what could happen. While Wales and Scotland are predicted to have a difficult time in the Autumn Internationals they also have a history of pulling the unlikely out of the bag. Anything can happen, that’s why you’ve always got to have a back-up plan, whether you’re a business or a rugby team.”
For further information contact:
Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications, QBE, 020 7105 5284
QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2016, was US$14.3 billion.
As a business insurance specialist, QBE European Operations offers a range of insurance products from the standard suite of property, casualty and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine and energy. All are tailored to the individual needs of our small, medium and large client base.
We understand the crucial role that effective risk management plays in all organisations and work hard to understand our clients’ businesses so that we offer insurance solutions that meet their needs – from complex programmes to simpler e-trading solutions – and support them in minimising their risk exposures. Our expert risk management and rehabilitation practitioners focus on helping clients improve their risk management so that they may benefit from a reduction in claims frequency and costs.