Actuaries forecast Ireland to run away with Six Nations title

The Predictor, which has been developed by actuaries at QBE Business Insurance and is based on a complex mathematical formula, normally used to predict the likelihood of earthquakes and floods, now gives Ireland an 84% chance of winning the tournament. This is compared to a 43% chance before the third round and only a 38% chance before the tournament began.

England are the closest challengers to Joe Schmidt’s men, though the Predictor now only gives them an 11% chance of retaining the trophy, with the chastening defeat to Scotland swinging the odds firmly in Ireland’s favour. Actuaries have completely written off the hopes of Wales, France and Italy of winning the title – all given a 0% chance of winning – though there is a glimmer of hope for Scotland, who retain a 4% chance of lifting the trophy for the first time since 1999.

It is not only the Predictor’s initial forecasts that Ireland could end up defying, but also those surrounding the Grand Slam. Before the tournament began, actuaries predicted that there was a 66% chance of no one winning the Grand Slam, with England (15%) and Ireland (14%) given slim chances to pull off the feat. After Ireland’s heroics in the first three rounds, their chances of a Grand Slam have more than doubled to 34%, though the Predictor stands firm on 66% that there will be no clean sweep. Irish fans will be hoping their team can beat the Predictor again.

MATTHEW CRANE, Executive Director Market Management, QBE Business Insurance, said:

“The rugby predictor shows why you have to be prepared for any eventuality in life, despite what looks most likely. Ireland have surpassed most pre-tournament expectations and surged into pole position for the title. Whilst many Irish fans may think they’ve got it in the bag, they should be careful not to get too far ahead of themselves. They have a tough game against a rejuvenated Scotland up next before a showdown with England at Twickenham, where Ireland have not won since 2010, and where England have not lost since the 2015 World Cup.”

PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOURNAMENT:

Winner 
England 11%
Ireland 84%
Wales 0%
Scotland 4%
France 0%
Italy 0%

Grand Slam 
None 66%
England 0%
Ireland 34%
Wales 0%
Scotland 0%
France 0%
Italy 0%

Triple Crown QBE
None 66%
England 0%
Ireland 34%
Wales 0%
Scotland 0%

PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND’S GAMES

Ireland 28 – 16 Scotland
France 18 – 24 England
Italy 40 – 16 Italy

 
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Alex Midgley
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Email: alex.midgley@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

David Felton
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Email: david.felton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7105 5284
Email: Sandra.villanueva@uk.qbe.com

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Notes to editors:

QBE Business Insurance is a Principal Partner of the British & Irish Lions
QBE Insurance Group is Standard & Poor’s ‘A+’ rated and is one of the world's leading international insurers and reinsurers, headquartered in Sydney, Australia. We operate in 37 countries with a presence in all key insurance markets, and are lead underwriters within our chosen markets, setting rates and conditions
In Europe, QBE offers an extensive range of business insurance products from the standard suite of property, liability and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine, energy and political risk. QBE works in partnership with insurance intermediaries to deliver tailored cover to businesses from sole traders, via its online trading platform, to SMEs, large corporates and global multinationals.