QBE supercomputer predicts Wales to beat England this weekend

Despite England’s impressive wins in the first two games of the tournament QBE actuaries, using a complex mathematical formula and computer model, have forecast a narrow 20 -19 victory for Wales.

The QBE supercomputer applies some of the techniques used to predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods. Actuaries have used this complex mathematical formula and computer model to simulate the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games.

This forecasts a Wales victory as the most likely outcome on Saturday in what is certain to be a highly charged atmosphere in the Principality Stadium.

While predicting a Wales win on Saturday afternoon, the actuaries make England strong favourites to win the Six Nations tournament following their victories over Ireland and France. England have a 73% chance of winning the tournament with Wales second with an 18% probability.

MATTHEW CRANE, Executive Director of Market Management at QBE, said:

“Anything can happen in rugby as in business so regardless of what careful analysis predicts, we need to be prepared for all outcomes. England have exceeded expectations and are at the top of their game but there are always surprises around the corner. The teams should prepare for the unexpected this weekend, so they are in the best position to take advantage of opportunities that may result”.

The supercomputer continues to predict there will be no winner of the Grand Slam, although England’s chances have improved from 25% to 31% following the win over France. It also predicts that there will be no winner of the Triple Crown, although England’s chances have again improved with a 34% probability of success.

Wales have a 14% chance of winning the Grand Slam and the same probability of lifting the Triple Crown.

In the weekend’s other matches the supercomputer predicts a tight game in Paris with France and Scotland drawing 22-22 and a clear win for Ireland against Italy in Rome (11-49)

The predictions are based on an analysis by QBE Business Insurance actuaries of scores, results, past events and incidents over the last 5 years using a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams, the caps of each captain, latest world ranking and home/away advantage.

Tournament Predictions

Title
England 73%
Wales 18%
Ireland 8%
Scotland 1%
France 0%
Italy 0%

Grand Slam 
None 55%
England 31%
Wales 14%
Ireland 0%
Scotland 0%
France 0%
Italy 0%

Triple Crown 
None 52%
England 34%
Wales 14%
Ireland 0%
Scotland 0%

For further information and interviews please contact:

Mike Houghton
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Mob: +44 (0) 7789 167009
Email: Mike.Houghton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

Angus King-Davies
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Mob: +44 (0) 7972 781891
Email: Angus.KingDavies@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

Visit us on the web at www.QBEeurope.com
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About QBE

QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2017, was US$14.1 billion.
As a business insurance specialist, QBE European Operations offers a range of insurance products from the standard suite of property, casualty and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine and energy. All are tailored to the individual needs of our small, medium and large client base.
We understand the crucial role that effective risk management plays in all organisations and work hard to understand our clients’ businesses so that we offer insurance solutions that meet their needs – from complex programmes to simpler e-trading solutions – and support them in minimising their risk exposures. Our expert risk management and rehabilitation practitioners focus on helping clients improve their risk management so that they may benefit from a reduction in claims frequency and costs.