QBE supercomputer predicts knife edge draw that pushes England and Australia into extra time

A 22-22 draw after 80 minutes is predicted by the supercomputer based on a complex formula developed by QBE actuaries whose day job is to predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods on businesses.

Before the World Cup began, the QBE Rugby Predictor gave Australia a 69% chance of making it to the semi-finals and England 56%, which would suggest that if the match goes into extra time, it will be Australia who triumph. Either way it looks to be a tense and thrilling spectacle.

While the England and Australia clash looks to be the most intense of the quarter finals, elsewhere New Zealand are predicted to comfortably beat Ireland with a 29-17 win. Wales look set to continue their good form with a 24-13 win over France and hosts Japan are predicted to lose an entertaining 25-31 game to South Africa, although considering the outcome when Japan and South Africa met in 2015, and Japan’s current form the unpredictable may happen.

The predicted scores in each game are based on 10 years of historical data and how well each team has played in the past against opposition of similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team of playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.

Each simulated match uses probabilities and random numbers to generate an outcome. Modelling the entire tournament 3,750 times gives an idea of how far each team will go in the tournament and the chances of this happening.

MATTHEW CRANE, Executive Director of Market Management at QBE, said:
“The knockout stages of the World Cup are even more unpredictable making them a far more intense affair. England have looked very strong in the groups but our predictions would see them fall just short of Australia. From a typhoon to the performance of the host nation, we have already had our fair share of surprises this tournament and it looks like we’ll be on the edge of our seats again this weekend.”

Predicted Quarter Finals Results

For further information and interviews please contact:

Mike Houghton
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Mob: +44 (0) 7789 167009
Email: Mike.Houghton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

David Felton
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7256 8912
Mob:+44 (0) 7803 214682
Email: david.felton@jeffersoncommunications.co.uk

Sandra Villanueva, Corporate Communications
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7105 5284
Email: Sandra.villanueva@uk.qbe.com

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About QBE

QBE European Operations is part of QBE Insurance Group, one of the world’s leading international insurers and reinsurers and Standard & Poor’s A+ rated. Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, QBE’s gross written premium for the year ended 31 December 2018, was US$13.7 billion.

As a business insurance specialist, QBE European Operations offers a range of insurance products from the standard suite of property, casualty and motor to the specialist financial lines, marine and energy. All are tailored to the individual needs of our small, medium and large client base.

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